Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 11272 | 49924 | 377 | 105 | 104 | 129 |
| April 03 2021 | 11275 | 49973 | 378 | 105 | 88 | 119 |
| April 04 2021 | 11289 | 50032 | 379 | 105 | 87 | 128 |
| April 05 2021 | 11289 | 50082 | 379 | 105 | 72 | 128 |
| April 06 2021 | 11296 | 50124 | 379 | 105 | 79 | 128 |
| April 07 2021 | 11306 | 50167 | 379 | 105 | 85 | 119 |
| April 08 2021 | 11311 | 50250 | 379 | 105 | 90 | 109 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.8% | 7 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.7 | 18.9% | 17 | 0.12% | 18 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.4 | 25.6% | 23 | 0.11% | 25 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.4 | 24.4% | 22 | 0.16% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.0 | 10% | 9 | 0.09% | 12 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 6.7% | 6 | 0.05% | 10 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.6% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 5 | 7.9 | 100% | 90 | 0.09% | 109 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 7185 | 29358 | 237 | 93 | 32 | 44 |
| April 03 2021 | 7185 | 29389 | 237 | 93 | 23 | 34 |
| April 04 2021 | 7185 | 29420 | 237 | 93 | 19 | 34 |
| April 05 2021 | 7185 | 29442 | 238 | 94 | 16 | 34 |
| April 06 2021 | 7197 | 29475 | 240 | 94 | 24 | 44 |
| April 07 2021 | 7204 | 29516 | 240 | 94 | 30 | 42 |
| April 08 2021 | 7209 | 29554 | 240 | 94 | 35 | 43 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 17.9% | 7 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.9 | 23.1% | 9 | 0.13% | 10 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.6 | 20.5% | 8 | 0.1% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 12.8% | 5 | 0.06% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 5.1% | 2 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 5 | 3.9 | 100% | 39 | 0.06% | 45 | 0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 5532 | 19414 | 246 | 76 | 34 | 48 |
| April 03 2021 | 5541 | 19437 | 248 | 76 | 36 | 48 |
| April 04 2021 | 5551 | 19463 | 249 | 76 | 44 | 55 |
| April 05 2021 | 5551 | 19480 | 249 | 76 | 43 | 55 |
| April 06 2021 | 5556 | 19493 | 250 | 76 | 48 | 58 |
| April 07 2021 | 5569 | 19526 | 250 | 76 | 57 | 64 |
| April 08 2021 | 5572 | 19554 | 251 | 76 | 56 | 65 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 5 | 0.09% | 5 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.9 | 16.1% | 9 | 0.17% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.3 | 17.9% | 10 | 0.18% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 19.6% | 11 | 0.22% | 12 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.1 | 14.3% | 8 | 0.12% | 8 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 10.7% | 6 | 0.09% | 7 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 5 | 0.08% | 5 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 3 | 6.4 | 100% | 56 | 0.12% | 65 | 0.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 12444 | 55438 | 384 | 80 | 94 | 120 |
| April 03 2021 | 12460 | 55512 | 384 | 80 | 95 | 124 |
| April 04 2021 | 12468 | 55578 | 385 | 80 | 91 | 128 |
| April 05 2021 | 12468 | 55614 | 386 | 80 | 80 | 128 |
| April 06 2021 | 12482 | 55669 | 386 | 80 | 91 | 132 |
| April 07 2021 | 12487 | 55778 | 387 | 80 | 93 | 122 |
| April 08 2021 | 12495 | 55909 | 389 | 80 | 101 | 118 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 7.9% | 8 | 0.07% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.3 | 20.8% | 21 | 0.13% | 30 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.4 | 19.8% | 20 | 0.09% | 20 | 0.09% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.9 | 15.8% | 16 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.6 | 10.9% | 11 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.7 | 14.9% | 15 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 3% | 3 | 0.02% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 6.9% | 7 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 8 | 10.9 | 100% | 101 | 0.09% | 118 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 42237 | 331537 | 1324 | 289 | 583 | 709 |
| April 03 2021 | 42318 | 331956 | 1325 | 289 | 598 | 763 |
| April 04 2021 | 42398 | 332390 | 1326 | 289 | 606 | 793 |
| April 05 2021 | 42475 | 332740 | 1333 | 289 | 623 | 838 |
| April 06 2021 | 42515 | 332992 | 1333 | 289 | 607 | 861 |
| April 07 2021 | 42570 | 333360 | 1334 | 289 | 615 | 850 |
| April 08 2021 | 42708 | 333924 | 1338 | 290 | 706 | 916 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 5.3 | 7.4% | 52 | 0.09% | 74 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 16.0 | 19.7% | 139 | 0.2% | 175 | 0.25% |
| 20-29 | 31 | 18.7 | 24.6% | 174 | 0.17% | 222 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 13.9 | 16.7% | 118 | 0.15% | 169 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 11.1 | 12.9% | 91 | 0.14% | 106 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 9.7 | 12.6% | 89 | 0.14% | 110 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 4.4 | 5.4% | 38 | 0.07% | 49 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.6 | 0.7% | 5 | 0.01% | 11 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 138 | 79.7 | 100% | 706 | 0.13% | 916 | 0.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 02 2021 | 578587 | 2739782 | 27685 | 6633 | 5464 | 6977 |
| April 03 2021 | 579293 | 2743387 | 27739 | 6640 | 5394 | 7281 |
| April 04 2021 | 579877 | 2747012 | 27767 | 6639 | 5441 | 7445 |
| April 05 2021 | 580184 | 2749514 | 27797 | 6640 | 5314 | 7414 |
| April 06 2021 | 581070 | 2751936 | 27869 | 6648 | 5750 | 7947 |
| April 07 2021 | 581797 | 2756357 | 27894 | 6653 | 6049 | 7898 |
| April 08 2021 | 582843 | 2761157 | 27971 | 6667 | 6799 | 8407 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 82 | 49.6 | 7% | 478 | 0.07% | 601 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 173 | 114.0 | 15.7% | 1068 | 0.14% | 1333 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 199 | 140.9 | 18.9% | 1283 | 0.17% | 1561 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 169 | 116.1 | 15.9% | 1082 | 0.14% | 1404 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 153 | 104.3 | 13.8% | 940 | 0.13% | 1165 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 156 | 112.6 | 15.6% | 1061 | 0.13% | 1296 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 73 | 64.0 | 9% | 613 | 0.08% | 753 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 41 | 31.6 | 4% | 274 | 0.04% | 294 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 1046 | 733.0 | 100% | 6799 | 0.12% | 8407 | 0.14% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 13% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 10.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.4 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 21.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 18.1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 12.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.8 | 24.6 | 21.4 | 79.7 | 50 | 17.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.4 | 17.6 | 20.6 | 733 | 473.7 | 17.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5903"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges